World Bank’s poverty in India estimate does not pass the thali test
Indian Express - Opinion · Published 11 November 2026 · Last updated
The World Bank’s low extreme poverty estimate of 2.6 per cent for India is contested by the thali index, which indicates that nearly 30 per cent of the population struggles to afford basic food consumption.
Key points
- The World Bank released poverty estimates in November 2026 pegging extreme poverty in India at 2.6 per cent.
- The World Bank poverty estimate relies on a headcount ratio derived from applying a poverty line to data reported in the NSS Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2023-24.
- The thali index, proposed in July 2025, measures the standard of living by calculating the number of thalis an individual can afford based on monthly per capita food expenditure in the HCES.
- Applying a price of Rs 30 for a home-cooked vegetarian thali estimated by CRISIL for 2023-24, the thali index reveals that up to 50 per cent of rural Indians and 20 per cent of urban Indians cannot afford two thali meals a day.
- Imputing the value of subsidised food lowers the proportion of those unable to afford two thali meals to 40 per cent in rural areas and 10 per cent in urban areas.
- Between January and September, India has experienced a continuous and accelerating surge in food price inflation, with rates trebling over the period.
- The World Bank report does not explicitly disclose the exact set of goods and prices used to construct its poverty line for India.
Background
- In July 2025, authors proposed the thali index as a simple alternative measure of the standard of living in India using food consumption data.
- The HCES for 2023-24 served as the foundational database for both the World Bank poverty headcount ratio and the thali index computations.
Prelims facts and Mains angle for this issue are in the full SWAदेSH note.
Original report: Indian Express - Opinion