In India, economic momentum has outpaced geopolitical gravity. There’s more to be done
Indian Express - Opinion · Published 11 November 2026 · Last updated
India's robust economic momentum has outpaced global geopolitical fragmentation, supported by strong AI infrastructure investment, resilient household demand, and trade diversification, though rising inflation and foreign capital outflows pose near-term challenges.
Key points
- Global economic resilience and AI-related investments in data centres and semiconductors have driven private capital expenditure and created powerful cross-border multiplier effects, according to S&P Global.
- India's GDP growth is expected to average about 7 per cent this fiscal year, supported by robust activity in the first half despite moderation expected in the second half due to an uneven monsoon.
- India's petroleum exports rose 37 per cent on-year in US dollar terms during April-September and nearly 50 per cent in rupee terms, cushioned by refined product price surges following global disruptions.
- Merchandise exports grew 19 per cent in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by strong performances in electronic goods, engineering goods, and chemicals.
- Crisil Ratings reported that corporate credit quality strengthened, with the credit ratio improving to 2.18x in the first half from 1.50x in the second half of the previous fiscal year.
- Corporate revenue is estimated to have grown 16 to 16.5 per cent on-year during July-September, with stable EBITDA margins masking sector-level divergence.
- Consumer inflation is projected to average around 5.3 per cent, with upside risks driven by deficient kharif rainfall, lower reservoir levels, and persistent El Niño conditions.
- Net foreign capital outflows in the first eight months of the fiscal year exceeded the entirety of the previous fiscal year, though November brought positive portfolio flows.
Background
- Major central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), have maintained a tighter monetary policy stance due to persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices and freight rates.
- Household financial liabilities have grown faster than financial assets in recent years, though households remain net financial savers while supporting consumption through borrowing and tax relief.
Prelims facts and Mains angle for this issue are in the full SWAदेSH note.
Original report: Indian Express - Opinion