COP31: El Niño could cause $11 trillion in global income losses, threaten food security, IFAD warns
Down To Earth · Published 11 November 2026 · Last updated
The 2026-27 El Niño threatens global income losses of $11 trillion and acute food insecurity for 49 million people, according to an assessment released at COP31.
Key points
- A document titled Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile was released on November 9, 2026 by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
- The findings were presented on the opening day of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Antalya, Türkiye.
- The 2026–27 El Niño could peak between October 2026 and January 2027, causing global income losses reaching $11 trillion over the next five to six years.
- Southern Africa countries including Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe face a probability exceeding 50 per cent of agricultural drought between October 2026 and March 2027.
- World Food Programme estimates cited in the analysis warn that an additional 49 million people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
- Combining support for agricultural inputs, market access, and finance could reduce farmers' income losses by 18.7 per cent, compared with 9.8 per cent through financial interventions alone.
- The current El Niño is developing against a backdrop of rising global temperatures and follows the 2026 energy price shock linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
- Small-scale farmers, who produce a third of the world's food, were particularly affected by higher production, processing, and transport costs during the 2026 fertilizer and energy shocks.
Background
- The 2015-16 El Niño reduced regional rice production in South and Southeast Asia by 15 million tonnes, with the Philippines recording an 11 per cent decline.
- Global food systems faced severe disruption in 2026 due to concurrent energy and fertilizer price shocks occurring within a single planting season.
Prelims facts and Mains angle for this issue are in the full SWAदेSH note.
Original report: Down To Earth